Tag: China

India explores options abroad

India has been batting on the back foot in handling its affairs at home, but on issues of foreign policy it has lately been looking for new openings, showing greater confidence in itself. In at least four areas it has made moves which befit a nation of billion-plus people keen to emerge as a major power of the 21st century.

The country  has chosen to explore oil and gas in the South China Sea; abstained on the vote on Syrian resolution in the Security Council; the Prime Minister has met President  Mahmoud  Ahmadinejad on the sidelines at the United Nations to promote better ties with Iran; and, most significantly, signed a strategic partnership agreement with Afghanistan.

All these initiatives are aimed at making the point that a country like India cannot but follow a foreign policy that is independent in nature and is aimed at protecting its national interest, without meaning  to harm the interest of any other nation, in the region or beyond.

It is possible the Chinese are going to feel  upset with India about  its decision to explore oil and gas in the South China Sea  — which in Beijing’s reckoning belongs to its area of influence.  The abstention on the vote on the Syrian situation and the Prime Minister’s meeting the Iranian President in New York may have made Washington unhappy; but India has its reasons and the right to pursue a policy that advances its interests without tripping on other countries toes.

The most important, perhaps a departure, is India’s decision to go in for  a strategic partnership with Afghanistan. The strategic partnership agreement, signed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Hamid Karzai, provides for India to train the Afghanistan National Army and the supply of military equipment to enable it to do its job better against the  security threats the country is facing.

Many in Pakistan are bound to feel disturbed by India and Afghanistan signing the strategic partnership agreement. Islamabad has always been living with the self-cultivated belief that Afghanistan is a part of its strategic depth it has been seeking to achieve.

Afghans, irrespective of their  dispensation, have never liked the notions of  strategic depth which  smack of Pakistan’s extra-territorial ambitions,  or at least a  keenness to have a quisling rule in Kabul to govern Afghanistan  — for Islamabad.

The strategic partnership agreement between India and Afghanistan cuts into Pakistan’s plans to acquire this strategic depth in Afghanistan and as such is certainly bound to be unpopular with the Pakistan Army.

Essentially, Pakistan has been wanting to fill the vacuum  in Afghanistan, first left by the Soviet withdrawal and now after the US has pulled out its troops in 2014. After  the Soviet withdrawal two decades ago it sustained the Taliban regime in the 1990s until it was replaced by US-Nato troops in the wake of  9/11.

The induction of US-Nato troops aimed at fighting Al Qaida terrorists operating from the Pakistan-Afghanistan border was never liked by Pakistan. It followed a strange two-track approach which ostensibly was meant to support the US  war on terrorists and at the same time backing the Taliban groups in Afghanistan on the sly was a part of Pakistan’s ground plans. This kind of a two-faced policy followed by Pakistan was bound to lead to a fractured relationship between the US and Pakistan one day.

The Haqqani groups attack on the US-Nato interests in Afghanistan has made mending the US-Pak relations extremely difficult.  It looks like Islamabad may soon have to choose between Haqqani and the US.

For years, India has been kept at bay by Pakistan and the Taliban in Afghanistan.  Indian Embassy and other interests in Afghanistan have been attacked by the ISI-backed Taliban. Even if the level of India’s training to Afghan National   Army and the supply of equipment to ANA to augment its capability under the new agreement remains low,  any Indian interest in Afghanistan is bound to get under Pakistan’s  skin, although it is the sovereign right of Afghanistan to enter into arrangement with another country, particularly when it wants to equip itself to deal with threat to its security.

It is not that Indian presence in Afghanistan is going to be  massive in size that should cause  fear in Islamabad.  India has already been training a few Afghan army personnel in India. The new agreement may eventually lead to training in Afghanistan itself and supply of some basic  military equipment.

A day after signing the agreement for strategic partnership, Dr Karzai in a keynote lecture in New Delhi felt it necessary to assure Pakistan, which he described as “a twin brother” and India, “a great friend”. It is unlikely that his assurance and any that India might convey, are likely to be taken at face value by Islamabad, judging from the reports that the Pakistan top generals are already discussing the new situation.

India also does not want to be sucked into  any internal Afghan conflicts as it knows about the fate that  other powers – the Soviet Union or US-Nato and others, have met after getting into the country’s internal power struggles. India does not want to be a part of any game, great or otherwise — often played by international powers in the past.

New Delhi’s only strategic interest is that Afghanistan should emerge from its continuing travails and grow according to its own genius, as an independent country, free from any foreign interference.

India has already been favouring the idea that an international conference should be called to work out  future of Afghanistan after the US-Nato troops have pulled out from the war-torn country.

Participants in this conference should be the permanent members of the UN Security Council, the European Union, and Afghanistan’s, regional nations like India, Pakistan, Iran and Central Asian neighbours. This conference should guarantee a kind of international status that ensures Afghanistan’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, non-interference into its affairs by any outside power, among other things.

The idea for such a conference has always been looked at with scorn by Pakistan which has considered Afghanistan to be its redoubt  and a part of the  strategic depth.

The US has so far been lukewarm to the idea of such a conference, mainly because it did not  want to hurt Pakistan’s sensitivities, but in view of the kind of the problems that are now dogging the US-Pakistan relationship, it may come to  the view post-pull out guarantees for Afghanistan more favourably. Several other western countries are increasingly accepting the need for such a conference.

Much depends on how the Pakistan Army  top brass reacts to the present situation in the region. There is a possibility that it may misunderstand Indian intentions.

Rightly considered, India and Pakistan should think of ways for how they can cooperate with each other in the economic development of Afghanistan. This will require statesmanship of a high order and an element of mutual trust, which in turn will help resolve India-Pakistan problems and ensure  durable peace in the region.

– Zee News, October 17th, 2011

World won’t wait for India

When domestic politics becomes intense, there is a risk of vital issues concerning foreign policy getting neglected. A vibrant democracy like India’s will always have some internal stomach-aches which can draw greater attention than the situation in the world outside.

A nation like India, poised to emerge as a major economic, political and military power of the 21st century, cannot afford to sit back and shut its eyes to what is happening elsewhere in the world.

During the last two years issues and controversies at home dominated the public mindspace. The general mood of cynicism that spread across the nation as well as the bitter acrimony that underscored the public discourse distracted the country and the political leadership from the tasks abroad.

After the ongoing Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh are over, the country will get busy with preparations for the next parliamentary polls due in 2014. Already, much of the public debate about the Assembly elections is viewed in the context of what impact their results will have on the 2014 parliamentary polls.

The world, which is always changing, is not, however, going to wait for India’s next Lok Sabha elections to be over. Even in the next two years the situation in major parts of the world will have changed, demanding India’s continued attention, irrespective of what happens during the run-up to the 2014 polls.

Major nations of the world are going to see a few important changes. The present leadership in China led by Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao will have given way to a new leadership by the end of this year. Vladimir Putin will return to the presidency at the Kremlin to make it more powerful and govern Russia for at least six years.

In the United States, it will be known by the end of the year whether President Barack Obama gets a second term, or a Republican will capture the White House. It remains to be seen whether President Obama — if he gets re-elected — will give greater attention to Washington’s global policies than he has given during his first term. At the end of his first term, he is in a withdrawal mode.

Nearer home, the situation in Pakistan is in a state of flux and no one knows what is the shape of things likely to come in Islamabad, caught as it is in a triangular war between the civilian government, the army and the judiciary.

The situation in West Asia will, perhaps, become a major concern for New Delhi, considering that over 60 lakh Indians work there and a chunk of our oil supplies come from the Persian Gulf. So do the trades routes with the western hemisphere.

Already, the US has decided to toughen the sanctions regime against Iran —mainly because it is refusing to give up its nuclear bomb programme. Iran has even threatened to block the Straits of Hormuz in retaliation and in case it carries out its threat, it can lead to a flare-up in one of the most dangerous spots in the world.

Iranians are unlikely to succumb to the sanctions. Their economy depends on oil exports. They could divert most of their oil exports to China, which like Russia, is opposed to Western sanctions against Iran.

No one knows what the Israelis will do in this kind of a situation. They have a running rivalry with Iran in West Asia’s complicated politics where oil, religion, geopolitics and big power interests have brought about dangerous uncertainties. Also, Israel and the US hate to see Iran going ahead with its plans to develop nuclear weapons.

The Assembly elections or a run-up to the parliamentary polls in 2014 notwithstanding, India cannot simply watch with indifference the situation in the area so close to it.

Also when major powers like the US, Russia and China will be busy with their elections or changes at the leadership level, India can take initiatives unhindered to improve relations in its immediate neighbourhood. The big powers are too busy with their own pursuits at this time.

At present, the relations with South Asian neighbours are better than before. Even if the Teesta accord fell only because of Mamta Banerjee choosing to scuttle it, the relations between India and Bangladesh have vastly improved after Sheikh Hasina’s return to power in Dhaka.

Of particular significance is the recent improvement of relations with Myanmar. During the last three months three high-level visits to India by leaders of Myanmar — of the President, the Speaker and the Foreign Minister – have taken place. These were not courtesy calls from a neighbouring country, which has decided to go in for a reconciliation process at home, initiating democratic reforms and released Aung Saan Su Kyi. But it also decided to open out to the rest of the world, certainly to India. For India, having opted for the Look East policy, Myanmar can become a bridge with South-East Asia.

The relations with Nepal, which is of critical importance, have improved lately with Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai coming to power in Kathmandu. He will like to keep a balance when dealing with China in the north and India along its southern border, but is likely to keep Indian interests in mind.

Of crucial importance will be the relationship with China and Pakistan and the thickening ties between the two countries. The peace dialogue with Pakistan was going on smoothly until Islamabad got caught in political uncertainty following the “Memogate”. It can be resumed once it is clear who is to govern Pakistan.

Despite “irritants” — as Wen Jiabao would call these — making scary headlines, the India-China relations have been fairly on course, judging from the way the Special Representatives of the two countries tried to work out a framework for boundary demarcation in a slow process of the resolution of the border dispute.

Whatever the gloomy forecasts, a war between India and China is ruled out. Both countries have developed their military strength as also trade relations, although the trade balance with India is heavily tilted in favour of China.

There is no solution in sight about military and nuclear ties between China and Pakistan. Indian concern about this has been brought to the notice of the Chinese, but the only remedy for India is to grow its own military strength. At the same time, the policy should be to continue the dialogue with both — and these should go without interruption, until the cows come home. Hysterical noises and headlines do not make a constructive contribution to diplomacy.

India needs a vision for the 21st century and time to build its economy and military strength. The country also requires a consensus among major political parties on vital issues concerning foreign policy, security and terrorism. Such a consensus can be evolved despite the polemics that are going to mark the political landscape until the 2014 parliamentary elections.

– The Tribune, January 30th, 2012